NBK Update: Selection Sunday PM

Champ Week is over, and I am still not sure why it is not still called Championship Week.  No matter.  Big day for those teams who have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen — who have Never Been Kissed — and have wondered all year just how Kissable they are.   All will be revealed.

But first, Sunday’s results

Arkansas Little Rock rode Roger Woods 19&9 to the SunBelt #FunBelt Champ Belt on Sunday.

The NCAA Selection Committee evaluated previously-ranked NBK teams South Carolina, Monmouth, and St. Bonaventure and passed on all three.  We would have taken all three and left out Tulsa, Michigan, and Vanderbilt.  But what’s done is done.

We pointed the WAB Supercomputer at the tournament field and asked it who had the best chance to break through for their first trip to the second weekend.  Below is its answer:

Through Selection Sunday. NBK Rankings going into the Big Dance, ordered by decreasing Kissability
Through Selection Sunday. NBK Rankings going into the Big Dance, by decreasing Kissability

For Round 2 Probability, we assumed that the NBK team pulled the upset in Round 1 and faced the lower seed (better team) in Round 2.  NBK teams normally do not catch breaks, but should one of the NBK teams survive Round 1 and draw a lesser opponent in Round 2, we will re-calculate and re-post.

Stephen F. Austin opens with the best chance of winning twice, and the computer even favors them in Round 2 vs 6-seed Notre Dame.  This is a big tease, as they are steep underdogs in Round 1 vs 3-seed West Virginia.

Right behind the Lumberjacks are the Yale Bulldogs, rested and ready for action.  Yale stands about a 40% chance of winning in each of the first two rounds.

Mark your calendars and load up your slings as our Davids take on these Goliaths:

THURSDAY – 3/17

Yale vs. Baylor (0.40 wProb)
Colorado vs. Connecticut 0.36
Arkansas Little Rock vs. Purdue 0.29
Iona vs. Iowa State 0.26
UNC Wilmington vs. Duke 0.29
Stony Brook vs. Kentucky 0.18
Fresno St. vs. Utah 0.26
Buffalo vs. Miami FL 0.14

FRIDAY – 3/18

Stephen F. Austin vs. West Virginia 0.31
Oregon St. vs. VCU 0.42
Hawaii vs. California 0.32
Cal St. Bakersfield vs. Oklahoma 0.17
Green Bay vs. Texas A&M 0.17
UNC Asheville vs. Villanova 0.11
Middle Tennessee vs. Michigan State 0.09
Weber St. vs. Xavier 0.15