It has been a rough 48 hours for Stephen F. Austin. On Sunday, the Lumberjacks were less than a second away from advancing to their first-ever Sweet Sixteen and graduating from the ranks of the Never Been Kissed, when a man named Pfleugger from Notre Dame tipped it in and sent them home.
Then Tuesday, their coach Brad Underwood bolted for Oklahoma State in the same capacity.
Middle Tennessee‘s demise was not so sudden. The Blue Raiders hung with Syracuse for a half, trailing only 30-27 after twenty minutes, but spent the second half chasing and lost by 25. They will be remembered for a long time for their first round upset of mighty Michigan State, but remain NBK.
Hawai’i was also close for a half, down just one to Maryland, and faded in the end. Stefan Jankovich was blocked on a driving attempt — laying up when he should have been dunking — and the rout was on. The Rainbow Warriors will be an interesting team to watch this off-season, as impending NCAA sanctions loom for next year, rendering all players free agents and able to transfer and be eligible immediately.
Never Been Kissed rankings, after all teams have been eliminated
The kissed get kissier. Here are this year’s Sweet Sixteen schools, in order of number of Sweet Sixteens since 1985:
There are 351 schools competing in NCAA Division I basketball this year.
In the 31 NCAA tournaments since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985, just over one-third (122 or 35%) have made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
We devote this space at What’s a Billiken to those 239 teams chasing their first ever Sweet Sixteen, those schools who have Never Been Kissed. Our beloved Saint Louis Billikens finished well off the mark this year and fired their coach with two years remaining on his contract. The goal of reaching their first Sweet Sixteen by the school’s 200th anniversary in 2018 — the mission of the 16×18 Society — seems further away than before.
However, three schools now stand poised on the brink of fulfilling their dreams and basking in that second-weekend glow.
Through Saturday games. Final NBK rankings of 2015-16.
Stephen F. Austin stands the best chance among the three. By our estimation as well as Ken Pomeroy’s, the Lumberjacks go into today’s tilt with Notre Dame as slight favorites to advance. The elite offense of the Fighting Irish (#10 AdjO per KenPom) will be up against the Lumberjacks’ tenacious D (#11 AdjD per KenPom), so the Jacks advantage must be on the other side of the court. SFA sports a decent offense at #68, and the ND defense is mediocre at #168.
Surprisingly, Middle Tennessee has the second-best chance of continuing to breathe the rarified air. The Blue Raiders have exactly 1 win over the Top 100 this season. That win was two days ago over #5 Michigan St, slapping Sparty with the title of the best team to ever lose in the first round. MT faces Syracuse today for the right to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, in a clash of colors. This is a tough matchup for the Blue Raiders #14 three-point shooting, as the Orange is notably stingy in allowing threes (#10 in three-point percent defense, if there is indeed such a thing).
By the numbers, Hawai’i has the worst draw among the three NBKers remaining. The Maryland Terrapins were in the Top Ten much of the year and sport a roster of future pros. But the Terps went into the NCAA Tournament on something less than a roll, going 5-5 since (Denzel)Valentine’s Day. Their 5-seed was indicative of the Terps year-long resume, and emblematic the problems the committee has had in seeding the 5/12 and 4/13 spots. The Rainbow Warriors caught a break on Friday, as an inconsistent Cal Bears team came in hot but swirled in distraction. Their luck may continue with a Terps team very likely to overlook and underestimate.
Go Jacks! Go Blue Raiders! Go Bows! It’s the NBK, baby!
Yuuuuuge day for the NBK, as we continue our quest of tracking those schools who have never been to the Sweet Sixteen. The Never Been Kissed has never fared better.
Through Round One, including Friday games. Five still alive.
The bearded warriors of Stephen F. Austin looked Stephen Effing Awesome while crushing West Virginia in a dominating 70-56 win. Thomas F. Walkup was a ludicrous 19-20 from the line and bagged 33 points in total. West Virginia was led by Devin Williams with only 12 points (17 boards). We enjoy Devin Williams’ work and look forward to seeing the goggled one again next year. But today it’s Hail, Hail Lumberjacks! SFA will take on Notre Dame Sunday for the right to go to the Sweet Sixteen, and the Jacks will be favored.
Hail, Hail Hawai’i!! The Rainbow Warriors blasted California 77-66 with a balanced attack. Big West Player of the Year and Lug of the Century Stefan “Jimmy Chitwood” Jankovich kicked in 16 points and a pair of Senior guards — Quincy Smith (19) and Roderick Bobbitt (17) — were also in double figures. Glue guy Mike Thomas picked a great day to have his best effort of the year, logging 23 minutes of ruthless efficiency: 153 ORtg, 2/3 2-pointers, 1/2 3-pointers, 2/2 Free Throws, 6 reb, 1 blk, 0 TO. The islanders will take on Maryland Sunday.
While Stephen F. Austin was favored in our metrics, and Hawai’i had a strong chance given Cal’s sudden disarray, we at the NBK had no idea what Middle Tennessee was going to bring on Friday. The Blue Raiders invaded our hometown of St Louis and pillaged everyone’s bracket by upending Michigan St 90-81, leading wire-to-wire. For the Spartans, Denzel Valentine was good (13 points, 12 assists, 6 reb) and Matt Costello was great (22 pts on 9-10 from the field, 9 reb, 2 assists, a block and a steal) but overall their defense was abysmal. The BRs five starters all logged double-figure points and triple-figure Offensive Ratings. Hail, Hail the entire Middle of Tennessee! The Blue Raiders take on Syracuse in St Louis on Sunday for the right to go to the Sweet Sixteen.
We say goodbye until next year to Oregon St, Cal St Bakersfield, Green Bay, Weber St, South Dakota St and UNC Asheville. Bakersfield hung tight with Oklahoma for a bit, and South Dakota St only lost by 7, but on balance these teams maxed out.
Honorable mention to Northern Iowa, who acted like they’ve been there before because they have.
Game on. On this first Thursday of the 2016 NCAA Tournament, two of our Never Been Kissed teams advanced to the second round and the brink of the Sweet Sixteen.
Yale pulled the 5/12 surprise, taking down the Baylor Bears in the first session of the day. Makai Mason had 31 and the Bulldogs move on to a Saturday match with Duke.
Arkansas Little Rock overcame a double-digit deficit to upend the Purdue Boilermakers in double-OT. The Trojans’ Josh Hagins also put up 31, including the tying 3-pointer at the end of regulation. UALR will battle Iowa St on Saturday for the right to move to the Sweet Sixteen.
Colorado, Iona, UNC Wilmington, Stony Brook, Fresno St and Buffalo all bowed out on Day One. They have still never made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Our rankings of the NBK.
NBK Rankings after day one of the NCAA Tournament
FRIDAY 3/18
Oregon St. vs. VCU
Hawaii vs. California
Stephen F. Austin vs. West Virginia
Cal St. Bakersfield vs. Oklahoma
Green Bay vs. Texas A&M
Weber St. vs. Xavier
UNC Asheville vs. Villanova
Middle Tennessee vs. Michigan State
Champ Week is over, and I am still not sure why it is not still called Championship Week. No matter. Big day for those teams who have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen — who have Never Been Kissed — and have wondered all year just how Kissable they are. All will be revealed.
But first, Sunday’s results
Arkansas Little Rock rode Roger Woods 19&9 to the SunBelt #FunBelt Champ Belt on Sunday.
The NCAA Selection Committee evaluated previously-ranked NBK teams South Carolina, Monmouth, and St. Bonaventure and passed on all three. We would have taken all three and left out Tulsa, Michigan, and Vanderbilt. But what’s done is done.
We pointed the WAB Supercomputer at the tournament field and asked it who had the best chance to break through for their first trip to the second weekend. Below is its answer:
Through Selection Sunday. NBK Rankings going into the Big Dance, by decreasing Kissability
For Round 2 Probability, we assumed that the NBK team pulled the upset in Round 1 and faced the lower seed (better team) in Round 2. NBK teams normally do not catch breaks, but should one of the NBK teams survive Round 1 and draw a lesser opponent in Round 2, we will re-calculate and re-post.
Stephen F. Austin opens with the best chance of winning twice, and the computer even favors them in Round 2 vs 6-seed Notre Dame. This is a big tease, as they are steep underdogs in Round 1 vs 3-seed West Virginia.
Right behind the Lumberjacks are the Yale Bulldogs, rested and ready for action. Yale stands about a 40% chance of winning in each of the first two rounds.
Mark your calendars and load up your slings as our Davids take on these Goliaths:
THURSDAY – 3/17
Yale vs. Baylor (0.40 wProb)
Colorado vs. Connecticut 0.36
Arkansas Little Rock vs. Purdue 0.29
Iona vs. Iowa State 0.26
UNC Wilmington vs. Duke 0.29
Stony Brook vs. Kentucky 0.18
Fresno St. vs. Utah 0.26
Buffalo vs. Miami FL 0.14
FRIDAY – 3/18
Stephen F. Austin vs. West Virginia 0.31
Oregon St. vs. VCU 0.42
Hawaii vs. California 0.32
Cal St. Bakersfield vs. Oklahoma 0.17
Green Bay vs. Texas A&M 0.17
UNC Asheville vs. Villanova 0.11
Middle Tennessee vs. Michigan State 0.09
Weber St. vs. Xavier 0.15
Well, we’ve sprung forward, lit a fire, and have a pot of coffee at the ready. Selection Sunday is finally here! With just a few hours to go before Greg Gumbel starts revealing the field, let’s see where we are with the Never Been Kissed after an epic Saturday of basketball.
NBK Standings for action through Saturday night
We start with the good news here in the NBK. For the first time ever, Stony Brook is going dancing! At home in their beautiful new building, the 4,000 Seawolves fanatics in attendance were treated to the benevolent demonic possession ofJameel Warney. The 6’8″ senior was a One Man Seawolf Pack (Wolf School?) with 43 pts, 10 reb, 4 blks on a day when his teammates could not get anything else going. See. Wolves. See. Wolves.
Hawaii is going (hula) dancing! The Rainbow Warriors got by Long Beach State to take the Big West final late Saturday night. With Bows big man, Big West Player of the Year, and Jimmy Chitwood look-alike Stefan Jankovic largely contained, Aaron “Juan” Valdes led a balanced attack with 14 pts, 5 reb and a pair of steals.
Stephen F. Austin is going (line) dancing! The Lumberjacks did what they do, forcing Texas A&M-Corpus Christi into 20 turnovers to win the Southland going away. SFA is sure to be a favorite upset pick and human interest story, as the Lumberjacks’ intrepid leader Thomas Walkup really honest-to-goodness looks like a Lumberjack. He is the Brawny paper towel guy. And in an age when the small-ball Golden State Warriors are re-writing the records books, the Jacks are the giants of NCAA small-ball: they have won 22 straight with the tenth-shortest lineup, per Ken Pomeroy’s Average Height metric. For all these reasons and their solid #37 KenPom, the Jacks shoot to the top of the NBK rankings.
Welcome Cal St. Bakersfield to the NBK! Diminutive Dedrick Basile led the charge for the Roadrunners with 18 points, dropping an Acme anvil on the head of New Mexico State and taking the WAC championship. The ‘runners boast the #25 KenPom defense and 6’9″ shot-blocker Aly Ahmed and could give some unsuspecting team fits next week.
Arkansas-Little Rock advanced to the Sun Belt #FunBelt final. The Trojans overcame an epic performance from Louisiana-Lafayette‘s Shawn Long — 25 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast, 3 blk — in Saturday’s semi. Long might be the best rebounder you have never heard of. Here’s hoping we get a chance to see him in a postseason tournament somewhere.
Well that was fun. Now onto the bad news.
The Akron Zips fell on Saturday to Buffalo in the wiggity WAC Final, banishing them to NBK gray and relegating them to the NIT. Akron relied heavily on the three-pointer this season, and can take comfort in knowing they did not die by the three (39.5% in the loss).
The Bubble got bubblier last night for a couple of heretofore NBK stalwarts:
Final bubble after overnight “scrub.” IN: Temple, Michigan, St. Mary’s. OUT: Monmouth, So. Carolina, Vandy. A… https://t.co/I4y3NjJ9Nq
All this talk of bubbles and scrubbing and Joe Lunardi has me suddenly feeling under the weather. Let’s move on.
Joey Brackets puts WAY more time into this than we at WAB NBK HQ, so we take his word and drop Monmouth and South Carolina to the bottom of our rankings as we await today’s movement and the committee’s final decision. Apparently you now can bet on the number of teams Joey Brackets correctly predicts, and the line is 66.5 out of 68, so the Hawks and Cocks are hoping like hell to be within Marge N. O’Vera this evening.
To balance out Bracketology Bias, we have added the Bracket Matrix predictions to this edition of the rankings. All good an interesting stuff, and all moot come 4:30 PM Central.
Friday was a crazy one in college basketball. UConn went 4OTs and canned a 70-footer to beat Cincinnati and possibly play their way into the Big Dance. The incomparable Buddy Hield launched a double-pump one-handed half-court prayer to keep the Oklahoma Sooners alive, only to have it turned over on review and send West Virginia to the Big XII final.
In this space, we track teams that have never — since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 — made it to the Sweet Sixteen. They’ve Never Been Kissed.
NBK rankings, through Friday games
Hawaii advanced to the final of the WAC, beating UC-Santa Barbara by 11. The Rainbow Warriors take on Long Beach State tonight.
Stephen F. Austin annihilated Houston Baptist by 36. They move on to tonight’s Southland final against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Any school that contains a state, an acronym, punctuation, some Latin, and a girl is certain to be formidable. Good luck, Steve A.
Stony Brook is battling Vermont to death in the America East final. This one will go down to the wire.
Akron advanced to the MAC final, striking Bowling Green by 14. Only Buffalo stands between them and the Big Dance.
St Bonaventure was upset by Davidson in OT, so they are going to have to wait out Sunday. Joey Brackets has them pretty solidly IN as a 10-seed. In other news, Jack Gibbs is magic. Go see Davidson play as soon as you can.
Paging Arkansas-Little Rock. You are needed in the semifinals of the Sun Belt #FunBelt. Paging Arkansas-Little Rock. Louisiana-Lafayette awaits you.
The NBK Selection Committee will be parked in front of the television for the next twelve hours, courting Cinderella, jeering Goliath, and grinning ear-to-ear. Happy Championship Saturday.
Oregon State was knocked out of the Pac-12 Tournament by Cal late Thursday night, but holds fast at a 10-seed in Joey Brackets latest.
Through Thursday 3/10
Nebraska is knocking on the door of the NBK, as Herbie got by Wisconsin to make the quarterfinals of the Big Tennish. Lincoln’s finest are still #96 in the KenPom and will likely have to plow through both Maryland and Michigan State just to get to the conference tournament final, so for now they remain Unkissable.
Holy Cross! The Crusaders have never made the Sweet Sixteen, but they are going to have a prayer of a chance this year. They won their way in despite a #159 rating and unholy 14-19 record.
In NBK Bubble news, Oregon State and St. Bonaventure have moved up to Last Four Byes status, while Monmouth remains in the Last Four In. The likes of Syracuse and Vanderbilt seem to be buffeting the Hawks upwards, so all trends point toward Monmouth joining the field of 68 on Sunday.
In action today are South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, Hawaii, Stephen F. Austin, and Akron. Best of luck and pucker up.
Thursday update as we track those teams who have not made the Sweet Sixteen since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. These are the most likely to breakthrough.
through Wednesday-ish
Wednesday Colorado and Oregon St pushed through to the quarterfinals of the Pac 12 tournament. The Buffs and South Carolina were thus separated by Joey Brackets, while the Beavs zoomed from Last Four In all the way up to a 10-seed.
On Thursday, Hawaii destroyed Cal State Fullerton to make the semifinals of the Big West. I have my fingers crossed that Kanye’s next child will be named “Big West”.
Also on Thursday, Akron too zipped to their semifinal with a win over Eastern Michigan. There they will take on the #12-seed Bowling Green and likely remain on collision course with #2 Ohio in the final.
Colorado ran into Arizona on Thursday night, fell behind by half a million but closed fast to make it a respectable 82-78 loss. No idea how Joey Brackets interprets all that bluster.
Also, SLU lost and fired their coach, Jim “Safecracker” Crews. The official What’s a Billiken position holds that the program was pointed in the right direction. The A-10 games affirmed that next year we will have a Senior Class in Reggie Agbeko and Mike Crawford, and Jermaine Bishop is in charge. Find another shooter and someone who wants to make the all-conference defensive team, and something good is brewing. Coach Crews — we thank you.
South Dakota St beat their rivals North Dakota St in the Summit championship on Tuesday night. The Jackrabbits played their way in to the Big Dance and are slotted as a dangerous 12-seed by Joe “Joey Buckets” Lunardi of ESPN Bracketology. So we move them up in the NBK rankings, as we continue to track those teams who have never made the Sweet Sixteen or Never Been Kissed.
through Tuesday 3/8
Joey Brackets must be monitoring the NBK closely, as his March 9 bracket has two pairs of NBK teams squaring off against each other:
Colorado vs South Carolina in an 8/9 matchup
Monmouth vs St. Bonaventure in a play-in game for a number 11-seed
Outside of the Monmouth and St. Bonaventure fans holding their respective breaths, this is a quiet day in the NBK. Colorado opens Pac-12 play, but sits safely IN and unless they are going to go ahead and win the conference tournament, might benefit from a drop in seed.
Oregon St also opens Pac-12 play and as they remain First Four Out, will need to rip off a streak to feel safe on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Hawaii, Stony Brook, UALR and Akron have to be watching all of these #1 conference seeds go down and wonder if they are next.
College Basketball analysis and other random tidbits
