Well it was a rough opening round for the Never Been Kissed conference.  Four member teams made the tournament; only one — Georgia St — survived to the weekend.

Manhattan was the first to bow out, as the Jaspers were upset in the play-in game by fellow 16-seed Hampton.  Next up was our best hope, but 6-seed SMU was also upset by the 11-seed UCLA Bruins.  The Mustangs were in control and seemingly assured of victory and a favorable second round matchup with 14-seed UAB, when all kinds of craziness and mayhem turned the game in favor of UCLA.  A hoop stat nerd Mustang fan will look at this win probability graph and weep.

Harvard, a 13-seed then lost a close one to 4-seed North Carolina.  The Tar Heels were in control most of the game, before the Crimson chipped away and took a brief 65-63 with less than two minutes remaining after a four-point play by Siyani Chambers.  Justin Jackson then took over for the Heels, scoring the next four to send UNC on to the Second Round.

On the bright side, 14-seed Georgia St shocked the world and broke our collective bracket by knocking off the 3-seed Baylor Bears.  My hope is that coaches sitting on barstools and sporting casual wear becomes a new thing.

So we now have all our NBK eggs in the Panthers’ basket.  KenPom gives Georgia St only a 33% chance of winning against 6-seed Xavier.   Taking a glance at the Four Factors it looks like this one is likely to come down to Turnovers:  the Panthers need to turn the Musketeers over, then turn them over again and again like a pastry.   Back on Feb 18, Cincinnati was able to turn Xavier over 18 times while only coughing it up 6 times themselves.  But the Muskys drained 10 of 17 from three to make up for it and squeak out a 59-57 win.

Best of luck to the Hunters and barstools and the NBK and America, by golly.

Before the tournament starts — or technically between the First Four and the Second Round — let’s examine the odds of teams who have never before been to the Sweet Sixteen of advancing there for the first time.

We at WAB have been tracking 16 of these teams all years in the fictional coalition-of-the-unwilling Never Been Kissed conference.  NBK membership is granted and reviewed on an annual basis.

Buffalo looks most likely to jump the queue and advance without even making the NBK watchlist, with Stephen F. Austin not far behind.  Having watched both in their conference tournament championships, we at WAB will be surprised if either wins twice.   Perhaps Bobby Hurley’s continuing hatred of Christian Laettner will be enough to propel Buffalo.

Manhattan bowed out even before things officially started, falling to Hampton in the First Four.  Only three NBK squads remain in the hunt for history.

Sweet Sixteen historical data from the Washington Post database.  Odds of advancing from KenPom.com.

* NBK members for 2014-15

The NCAA tournament has begun, and 4 of our 16 teams who have never made the Sweet Sixteen, who have Never Been Kissed, made the tournament this year.

Manhattan was first up and also first down, as they were eliminated by Hampton in the opening game of the tournament.  Derrick Chievous’ son had 15 points, 13 rebounds and 2 sprained ankles.

Of the remaining NBKers, SMU has the best chance of advancing, as they will be favored in their first game.  Harvard has that horseshoe going for them, as they fought their way into the coveted 4/5 upset-rich environment.  If Georgia St can solve the Baylor 2-3 zone, they have a favorable matchup with Briante-Weber-less VCU.

Never Been Kissed update from late Thursday night.  Five more NBKers bowed out on Thursday, and only Montana advanced.  The Grizz won on their home floor Thursday night over Weber St to move on to the final four of the Big Sky.

Old Dominion was done in by their 8-19 scattershot from the free throw line, as Richard Ross and Javonte Douglas combined (conjoined?) to go 2-9.

• IN: 2 (SMU, Manhattan)
• STILL FIGHTING: 3 (Georgia St, Harvard, Montana)
• OUT: 9 (Indiana St, Southern Miss, Nebraska, New Mexico, SLU, Colorado, Creighton, Northwestern, Fordham)
• PUCKERED: 2 (Murray St, Old Dominion)

Updated standings by Kissibility.

* The Ivy League does not conduct a conference tournament, so here we use their KenPom chances of winning the one-game playoff with Yale on Saturday at the Palestra in Philly

More NBKers bowed out on Wednesday.  SLU bombed a few threes to make it interesting and entertaining but ultimately fell to Duquesne in the A-10 Tournament, while fellow callow NBK squad Fordham got by George Mason to earn a crack at VCU on Thursday.

Montana moved out of the play-in game in ESPN Bracketology, but Manhattan remains in that field.

• IN: 2 (SMU, Manhattan)
• OUT: 5 (Indiana St, Southern Miss, Nebraska, New Mexico, SLU)
• STILL FIGHTING: 8
• PUCKERED: 1 (Murray St)

* The Ivy League does not conduct a conference tournament, so here we use their KenPom chances of winning the one-game playoff with Yale on Saturday at the Palestra in Philly

Good luck to all the NBKers opening their conference tournaments today.  And congratulations to Manhattan for making the field of 68 and keeping their Sweet Sixteen hopes alive for another week.

• IN: 2 (SMU, Manhattan)
• OUT: 2 (Indiana St, Southern Miss)
• STILL FIGHTING: 11
• PUCKERED: 1 (Murray St)

KenPom compiled the remainder of his Log5 tournament odds, updated in the table below.

Enjoy Championship Week!

* The Ivy League does not conduct a conference tournament, so here we use their KenPom chances of winning the one-game playoff with Yale on Saturday at the Palestra in Philly

As I watch Manhattan battle Iona for the MAAC championship, here are the latest goings-on with the Never Been Kissed conference.   KenPom posted most of the remainder of his Log5 projections for the conference tournaments, and that informs this ranking update heavily.

Here is the overall status of our 16:

• IN: 1 (SMU)
• OUT: 2 (Indiana St, Southern Miss)
• FIGHTING: 12
• PUCKERED: 1 (Murray St)

Shout out to the Jaspers for getting to this point.  They began their conference tournament with a 12.3% chance of winning it, but now are on ESPN2 with a 37% chance to dance.

The details:

One week to go until Selection Sunday, when the Never Been Kissed gang gets the signal to either pucker up or take a cold shower and come back strong next year.

With the promise and glory of conference tournaments keeping hope alive, Indiana St became the first NBKer to be officially eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.   The Sycamores were smoked 81-52 in the first round of Arch Madness by Porter Moser’s Loyola Ill team.   Hard to fathom how ISU finished tied for third in the conference, as Illinois St — who beat Wichita St to go to Sunday’s tourney final — and Loyola both look substantially stronger.

Harvard has a horseshoe lodged firmly in its hind-quarters, as Yale fell to Dartmouth on a buzzer-beater Saturday night, dropping the Eli or Bulldogs or VPs of Finance into a tie atop the tourney-less Ivy.  Harvard meets Yale in a one-game playoff Saturday at the Palestra in Philadelphia to decide who dances.   (Since we are talking Harvard-Yale, the dancing is sure to be somewhat off-tempo featuring lots of overbites)

Murray St may be racing for the NIT after a heart-breaking loss to Belmont in the title game of the Ohio Valley Conference.  Speculation is that the Racers lack of quality wins — #63 and rising Illinois St is their only Top 100 win — negates the 25-game win streak and keeps them from the Big Dance.

Personally, I would pay to see Cameron Payne and TJ Sapp and Jarvis Williams and all the Racers advance ahead of the likes of Illinois, Purdue, or UCLA.   This is a chance for the committee to consider the Fun Factor.  Though the hashtag #RacersDerserveABid is not actually true – can’t say they deserve it – we at WAB fully endorse its use.  Racer fans’ sphincters will be puckered all this week; we hope to see their lips puckered the week following.

Georgia St took care of business on Saturday, winning the Sun Belt outright and with authority over number two Georgia Southern 72-55.  They take the number 1 seed to the conference tournament in New Orleans.  More importantly to their Sweet Sixteen chances, the Panthers moved up a line on the Bracketology list to a 13-seed.  As we have noted many times, the 4s and 5s always look wobbly come tournament time and 13 is a terrific place for an underdog to emerge from the first weekend.

The Grizzlies of Montana were like Michael Corleone during a baptism on Saturday.  They went into cross-state rivals Montana St and crushed them 70-55, put a sack over the head of Sac St who lost at the Walkup Skydome to drop from the top, and somehow emerged from this byzantine tie-breaker scenario not only as co-conference champs but as Conference Tournament hosts.

Old Dominion has now ripped off six straight and the KenPom.com computer has taken notice, ranking the Monarchs a frisky #57.  Joey Brackets’ radar has extended to Norfolk, as ODU has inched up to the precarious Next Four Out list.  At WAB, we wait with baited breath to see KenPom’s log5 simulation of the CUSA tournament.  Champion Louisiana Tech won the league by two games but at #72 is rated lower than ODU.  And the Monarch’s defense — #47 in AdjD — stands as the only unit in the conference in the Top 50 nationally.

At the other end of the CUSA stands disgraced NBKer Southern Miss.  CUSA is an invitation-only-style tournament, and the Golden Eagles fell all the way from number 5 in the preseason NBK rankings to finishing three-games from qualifying for the conference tournament.  Really rough start for Doc Sadler in Hattiesburg.

Like Georgia St, SMU has a winner-take-all showdown for the conference title and number 1 seed on Sunday, in Dallas vs the Tulsa Hurricanes.  KenPom likes the Mustangs (predicting 82% chance of a win and forecasting a score of 67-58), and we at WAB concur.  The Haithers gonna Haith, Haith, Haith, Haith, Haith and the Hurricanes are gonna Cane, Cane, Cane, Cane, Cane but we suspect Larry Brown and co will shake it off.

Steve Masiello and the Manhattan Jaspers are moving right along in the MAAC tournament, making the semi-finals.  They are favored to beat St Peter’s today and potentially take on top-seeded Iona in the final.

Full NBK update below, grid-style and ordered by Current Kissability rating.

Footnotes:

* The Ivy League is the last remaining conference to eschew a conference tournament, so I cheated a bit here and used KenPom’s odds of Harvard beating Yale in their one-game playoff next Saturday

** Bracketology currently shows another team from these conferences getting the auto-bid, but the team shown is rated lower than their NBK-certified rival so I swapped the NBKer in

Resources:

• Ratings, Log5 and most other data from the incredible KenPom.com.  This is his world and the WAB and NBK just live in it.
• ESPN Bracketology updated frequently by the incomparable Joey Brackets aka Joe Lunardi
• CBS Sports has a great conference tournament bracket site here

We are building toward Conference Tournament season or Championship Week, if you prefer.  We have had a lot of significant movement in the NBK this week.  First the updated NBK standings.

All data from KenPom.com with the exception of ESPN’s Bracketology from Joe Lunardi aka Joey Brackets.  Teams ranked by Current Kissability.

Now some color commentary.

SMU

The Mustangs lost last Sunday to Cincinnati, opening the door for Tulsa to grab the #1 spot in the AAC tournament from betwixt their hooves.  However, the Hurricanes blew it by losing to Cincinnati on Wednesday.  This sets up nicely for a winner-take-all match on Sunday afternoon in Dallas between SMU and Tulsa.  Not only is this the most exciting game in the history of the AAC, but this serves as an early jolt of March Madness energy for the NBKs most kissable squad.

A win Sunday sets the bit and establishes this team as champions of something, creating a possibility of being pod champions in a couple weeks.  A loss Sunday puts a taste of blood in their mouths, and may leave them hungry for vengeance.   Talented team, nicely positioned to do some damage in March.

Harvard

The Crimson suffered the toughest NBK loss of the week, falling at home Friday night to their arch-rivals the Yale Bulldogs at home by ten: 62-52.  This is problematic, as Harvard becomes the very first NBK squad that does not control its own destiny.  The now-second-place Crimson need to beat Brown this weekend and hope Yale loses to Dartmouth, and then they have to beat Yale in a one-game playoff.  Oh, and with this loss Harvard has likely devalued the Ivy League tournament slot out of the cushy 12 / 13 seed down the much more treacherous 14 line.   4s and 5s are ripe for the picking; 3s are better-prepared.

Georgia St

The Panthers sit tied for first in the Sun Belt, and much like SMU they have a winner-take-all game this weekend against Georgia Southern.   Joey Brackets has our Panthers as a 14-seed at the moment, so they do have the potential to sneak up to the more favorable 12/13.  Much can and will change in a week.

Montana

This has been one great year for Larry Krystkowiak.   Not only is his current team the Utah Utes sit at #7 in the KenPom rankings and poised for a deep tournament run, but his alma mater the Grizzlies enter Championship in a three-way tie for first in the Big Sky.   Of the co-leaders, Montana seems to have the edge to stay on top as they play their cross-state rivals (?) #316 Montana St in the I Don’t Know What They Call This Game Series.

It will be tough sledding even if the Grizz get in; not only are they likely to get a 16-seed, they may even get the play-in version of that seed.

Old Dominion

ODU is making a late surge, winning five straight to move into a tie for 2nd place in CUSA and pursing slightly.   They have moved from #88 KenPom down to #66 over the course of the five-game winning streak and are getting frisky.

SLU

Saint Louis University, founded in 1818, also fielded a basketball team this winter.  I put this in the past tense as it looks like the team has hit one to many walls, and their best basketball is behind them.  In the time ODU has moved up 22 spots in the KenPom, SLU has lost 32 spots (from #251 to #283).  Short of Justin Love coming off the bench to rain threes and shattering fibulas, the Billikens are not terribly kissable right now.  Perhaps a toothbrush and some mints.