With just two weeks and some change remaining until Selection Sunday, it seems like the right time to check in on the Never Been Kissed (NBK) member schools.  ICYMI the NBK is a fake conference we invented to track the progress of some Billiken contemporaries.  Full post is here.  To refresh:

In order to be eligible for induction into the NBK, member schools have to meet the following criteria:

• Must field a Division I basketball team

• Must have never have made the Sweet Sixteen

Teams ordered by Current Kissability.  All data from KenPom.com with the exception of Bracketology from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

SMU

SMU is in the best position at this point.  They have a two-game lead on fading Tulsa in the AAC and enough of a resume to grab an at-large bid.  Once in the tournament, they are a study in balance with the #36 AdjO and #38 AdjD, and both a solid Mr Inside (6’11” Yanick Moreira) and sterling Mr Outside (5’9″ Nic Moore).

Unless someone drops down to the Play-in round, the Mustangs stand to be the only NBK team that will be favored in an NCAA game this March.  Pucker up, Mustang fans.

Murray State

Since starting the season 2-4 and losing to the likes of Houston and Portland, Murray State has ripped off a streak of 20 straight wins, led by PG Cameron Payne (#8 in Assist Rate) and the #26 overall offense.  Seth Davis has a Sharpie in his pocket, and is glad to see the Racers.

yup! RT @Parcelman18: @SethDavisHoops says if the #Racers run the table and lose in OVC final, he thinks they get an at large. #Racerlove

— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) February 21, 2015

Interesting that Joe Lunardi has Murray State and fellow-NBKer Harvard in the 4v13 / 5v12 pod.  These pods have been fertile ground for upsets in tournaments past.

Harvard

Speaking of the Crimson, Harvard was an early media darling but stumbled hard out of the gate losing to #247 Holy Cross in November, and following that up with a 72-27 loss to #2 Virginia.  That is not a misprint.  That was a palindrome, and also a nightmare if you are a Crimson fan.

But Harvard has steadied the ship of late and is in pretty good shape atop the Ivy, with their remaining Yale game coming at home.  They feature a strong defense (#13 in the country) and though their resume is thin — exactly one Top 100 win — Lunardi is forecasting they have enough Tommy Amaker shine to get into the Upset Pod.

Harvard vs Murray State in the second round would be a dream NBK matchup, champagne popping in the end regardless.  It would be a study of Harvard’s stout defense vs Murray State’s dynamic offense.  (Take the Racers).

Georgia St

The Panthers enter the discussion by moving into a tie in the Sun Belt with Georgia Southern and UL-Monroe.   Georgia St plays both their rivals the final week and control their destiny. Once in the tournament, however, a gauntlet awaits.  It is hard to envision a scenario where they get in the tournament above a 16-seed.

The Rest

• Nobody has fallen farther faster than Southern Miss, as a promising finish to last season has deteriorated into mounting losses and an NCAA probe.  Mounting and probing are always bad when it comes to basketball.
• SLU and Creighton are both on a similar arc, rebuilding with young guys and exploring the depths of their conferences after enjoying a couple of years on top.
• Montana has a decent shot of getting in the tournament, but will also be hard-pressed to climb up beyond a 16-seed
• Indiana St would make a lot of sense as a sleeper NBK team, as the two teams they trail in the MVC are #11 Northern Iowa and #13 Wichita St, both equipped for deep runs this season.  But those programs are not lifting the rest of the Valley.  With a home loss to SLU and their best win over #71 Illinois St, the Sycamores do not have the resume to get a reasonable seed.  Only a five-game tear through Arch Madness would give them a reasonable shot at the Sweet Sixteen.
• Iona was not selected this season, but I can see a scenario where the Gaels get in and draw a defensively-challenged #2 or #3 seed (hello Notre Dame) and rain a hellfire of threes on their bewildered heads in round one, then hang on to win one of those #15 vs #10 bruisers in round two.
• Northwestern has put together a few wins in the B1G and climbed out of its basement.  By all rights, they should not be ranked last in the NBK.  However, we remind you the Wildcats have never made the NCAA Tournament much less the Sweet Sixteen so the coveted 16th spot in the NBK is theirs for the forseeable future.

Twenty-three and it’s so sad to see. — Yellowcard

Maybe “sad to see” is on the melodramatic side.  Feel free to pull a Yellow card on us.

SLU (#244 in KenPom.com ratings coming in) went to #276 Fordham and received a shellacking, giving the Rams their first win in conference play and missing out on the chance to rub two wins together for the first time since before Christmas.

The pre-game buzz, if there was such a thing from two teams lurking at the bottom of the Atlantic 10, was around the matchup of the two promising freshman: Milik Yarbrough from SLU vs Eric Paschall from Fordam.  Both stand a sturdy 6’6″ and are fluid and shifty with the ball.  Both wear jersey #4.   Each leads his team in scoring.    Paschall is the better shooter, Yarbrough the better rebounder.

Fordham struck first, jumping (maybe hopping) to a 12-0 lead.  Jim “The Safecracker” Crews turned a few dials and went to his Stability Team — Austin McBroom and Mike Crawford — and order was restored for the time being.   Two mini-droughts in the second half and too many empty possessions doomed the Billikens to an 83-65 loss.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Any loss to an 0-9 (conference) team is not going to count as a moral victory.  In the first half, when SLU came from 12-0 down to stabilize at 20-18 it looked as though a roadie was well within reach.  But the Bills had given the Rams and their fans and glimpse of what was possible — a rare and precious win in a basketball game with referees and uniforms and everything — and hope sprung eternal.

SLU falls to 2-8 in the Atlantic 10, and 4-4 in moral victories.

Lineups

Starters:

• Marcus Bartley
• Davell Roby
• Ash Yacoubou
• Milik Yarbrough
• Austin Gillmann

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Roby (29)
2. Austin McBroom (27)
3. Yacoubou (25)
4. Mike Crawford (24)
5. Gillmann (20)
6. Yarbrough (19)
7. Brett Jolly (16)
8. Bartley (13)
9. Reggie Agbeko (13)
10. John Manning (8)
11. Miles Reynolds (6)
12. Tanner Lancona (0)

The overtime and the injury bring us back to the days early this season where everyone who played went for double-digit minutes.   The  missing Manning’s minutes went mainly to Miles Reynolds.

Four Factors

This is about as thorough a drubbing in the Four Factors as we have seen this year.  SLU shot the ball pretty well but did not keep pace with Fordham otherwise.

Leverage

Most of the Medium-High leverage in this game  came in the first half, and all the High leverage was at the start of the second half, when SLU hit the first two baskets to tie the game at 33.  Fumbling offense led to porous defense, and the rout was on.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

•  If Roby continues to pace the team in GmSc/Min, I am going to have to check the WAB supercomputer for North Korean cyberprints.  16 points on 9 shots is downright efficient, and he is throwing in enough other treats — 2 rebounds, 3 assists — to offset some of his tricks (3 turnovers, 4 fouls).
• Mike Crawford provided stability and shooting off the bench, and also turnovers and fouls
• McBroom was a stabilizing force in the first half, and ratcheted up his shots into double-digits.  From Game One it looked like a sure bet he would lead the team in shots taken but the Ys men have overtaken him.
• Bad game for Yacoubou.  Ten points on ten shots, and 5 turnovers.  He carried much of the load in trying to defend Paschall, who seems to favor his perimeter game.
• Five rebounds from Gillmann is what passes for a highlight in this section
• Stinker from Yarbrough, with foul trouble and little in the way of production

Summary

 Lousy game, lousy result.  The best we can muster is the team was able to check out NYC and tiny Rose Hill Arena, and get started with some healthy resentment towards the Rams and their freshman.  No matter how high SLU is riding the next time they return, the memory of this loss should serve as a harsh reminder that any team is dangerous at home.

—————————————————————————–————–————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

How could I possibly know what I want when I was only Twenty-One?  I see plenty of clothes that I like but I won’t go anywhere nice for awhile… — Sinead O’Connor

The Billikens, coming in to this game under .500 and rated #252 in the country, won’t go anywhere nice for awhile.   The NCAA, NIT, CBK and CBI are all down the road a fair piece.  UMass came into this one rated #113, but off to a solid 4-3 start in the conference race including wins over contenders Dayton and Rhode Island.

UMass controlled the Offensive glass and held a block party at Chaifetz Arena to escape with a 60-56 road win, sending SLU to its fourth straight loss and dropping them to 9-11 overall and 1-7 in the A-10.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Given UMass’ recent signs of life, their superior size and experience, and the fact that this game was played within a narrow margin to the final minute, this qualifies as a moral victory.  SLU stands at 4-3 in its bid for a moral majority.

Lineups

Starters: Bartley, Roby, Yacoubou, Yarbrough, Manning

Seven straight for this group.  Nothing to see here.

Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1. Austin McBroom (33)
2. Roby (31)
3. Yarbrough (29)
4. Yacoubou (25)
5. Mike Crawford (23)
6. Manning (20)
7. Austin Gillmann (16)
8. Reggie Agbeko (10)
9. Bartley (9)
10. Brett Jolly (4)
11. Tanner Lancona, Miles Reynolds (0)

It has been a tough year for Tanner Lancona.  He opened the season as a starter in the role of a stretch four, but has not shown the ability to stretch (5% from three) nor to hold down the four (Miles Reynolds rebounds at a higher rate).  And so he has sat for the past three games.   I expect there will be more chances for the 6’8″ 230 lb junior, but only the Safecracker knows how many more.

Miles Reynolds, in very limited playing time, has shown a knack for getting to the foul line (14-18 FTs against NC A&T, for instance) but has not distinguished himself in any other facet.  He has shown active hands on defense (3.2 steal rate leads the team) and hands of stone on offense (8% from three; 23% from two).   I have to believe there is some version of a hellacious press in our future, where Roby and Reynolds are reeking havoc in the backcourt.  May that day come soon.

Four Factors

The Factors point to the Billikens being out-sized and out-muscled in this one, as the Minutemen controlled the offensive glass.  Not pictures is the block party they held (7 blocked shots) to establish complete control of the paint.  This was as solid a game as SLU has played all year, but the UMass big men carried the day.

Leverage

Thirty-six of the games forty minutes were played in Medium-High leverage or above.  This game was played in a narrow fourteen point window (SJU’s biggest lead was 9; SLU’s was 5) and was in doubt down to the final minute.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

• Mike Crawford did his best Vinny Johnson imitation, coming off the bench firing away
• Roby continues to warm up to the WAB supercomputer, and is even starting to grow on the refs a bit.  This was his first foul-less game of the season.
• Austin Gillmann has shown flashes of being able to replace some of the perimeter 5 play Rob Loe was known for in his time at SLU and with the New Zealand national team.  If Gillmann can establish himself as an outside threat, that can invert the defense and give Yarbrough and Yacoubou room to operate down low.  Again, the the future.
• Yarbrough put up a forgettable (memorable?) 2-15, but scraped enough other contributions to stay on the positive axis.  If SLU cannot adjust to other team’s ability to focus 6’8″, 6’9″ and 6’10” defenders on Yarbrough, he is going to keep hitting his head on branches like this.
• McBroom ran the show with Bartley channeling Roby in foul trouble.  Five assists offset by four turnovers and a quiet shooting night.
• Also a quiet night for Yacoubou, making me wonder if the Safecracker has instructed his tandem of junior guards to work on getting shots for their callow teammates, to season them for the climb next year.

Summary

UMass has played at a fast pace the past several years under Derek Kellogg, but this edition relies more on size than speed.  The Bills slowed them down even more than normal, and held them  but could not finish possessions by securing defensive rebounds.  The Ys Men were held under wraps leading to another loss.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.

TV dinners they’re goin’ to my head
TV dinners my skin is turnin’ red
Twenty year old turkey in a thirty year old tin

— ZZ Top

Game Twenty was a turkey for this season’s Billikens; not sure about the thirty year old tin.  This reminds me of a favorite question from legendary SLU baseball assistant coach Frank Mormino, when he saw some less-than-graceful fielding:

Frank:  He looks like a billet out there.  You know what a billet is, son?

“Son”: No, Frank.  What is it?

Frank:  It’s twenty pounds of sh*t stuffed in a ten-pound sack.

If you cannot tell already from this meandering intro, this was not a good game for SLU .  Another road loss.  Another conference loss, extending the losing streak to three in a row and seven of eight. Whatever wind was in our sails after the thrilling VCU game last Friday night at Chaifetz turned to doldrums in Fairfax, VA.

George Mason came into the came on a five-game bender of their own, and the Billikens were just what they needed.  Let’s see what we can learn.

Jerry Falwell Scoreboard

Well, at least the kept it close.

If you hear anyone drop an “at least they kept it close” in reference to #SLU‘s performance tonight vs. GMU, I want you to slap them.

— Brian Hank Haenchen (@Brian_Haenchen) January 30, 2015

Whoa, whoa big fella.  Take it easy.  Call off the dogs.  I was just kidding around.  To score the game a moral victory, we at WAB are looking for high leverage games in a hostile environment where every possession counts on both ends.  We will not be fooled by the semi-respectable final score. This one was reasonably close in the first half, but by the first media timeout of the second half was all but decided.  George Mason was #196 and struggling going in, so closing to under ten in the last minute does not constitute a moral victory. SLU falls to 3-3 in its effort for a Moral (Victory) Majority.

Lineups

Starters:  Bartley, Yacoubou, Roby, Yarbrough, Manning Seventh straight for this combination. Minutes Distribution (non-starters in Bold):

1.  Yarbrough (33)
2. Roby (29)
3. Yacoubou (26)
4. Mike Crawford (24)
5. Austin McBroom (24)
6. Brett Jolly (16)
7. Bartley (16)
8. Austin Gillmann (12)
9. Manning (10)
10. Reggie Agbeko (7)
11. Miles Reynolds (3)
12. Tanner Lancona (0)

Nothing for Lancona and single-digit minutes for Agbeko and Reynolds means we went with nine guys for this one.   McBroom and Crawford saw significant time off the bench.  

Going into the season, it looked like a strong possibility that McBroom/Crawford would be the starting backcourt as they represented just about all of the returning shooting range.  McBroom started the season as the primary scorer, more recently moving to some sort of specialists role like in baseball.  Occasionally he has been the Closer, but more often a Setup man or even Middle Relief.

Crawford started the season moving and shooting well, went fallow for awhile as he battled a mysterious weight-loss, and more recently has picked up his scoring role from the bench, scoring in double-figures in his last three.  (I am not counting the VCU game, where he was essentially sidelined by Coach Crews in favor of McBroom’s ball-handling).  

Four Factors

The Four Factors, or just the one on the far right, show very clearly where this game was won by the Pats and lost by the Bills.  Mason was the aggressor and got to the line an impressive 34 times; SLU took 20 freebies.

Leverage

The decent amount of Medium-High leverage here should be taken with a grain of salt, as this was first half action between two very low-rated teams.  No High leverage minutes and the heat turned down after the half to fizzle out.

SLU Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post)

• Roby got his bits and bytes in order in this one.  As we have noted many times, the WAB supercomputer and AdjGS measures simply do not favor his game.  Davell came out on top in this one on the strength of 5 rebounds, 4 assists and a pair of steals.
• High volume shooting night for Yarbrough, but not enough contact to get to the line more than twice.  He did his best work on the boards (7 rebounds, 3 offensive).
• Crawford fouled out after firing up 10 shots yielding 14 points, tied for the team high
• Ten minutes without a rebound for Manning.  That should not happen.
• Lancona has now sat out the last three.  Given the team has not exactly caught fire in the face of this benching, we have to believe he will have some more chances coming his way.
• Scores as the worst game of the year for Yacoubou.  He is always doing a lot of trackable stuff — the is the anti-Roby in that respect — and usually his brand of good outweighs the bad to end up with a positive line.  In this one the 3 turnovers and 4 fouls carried the day, as he strangely only took 4 shots from the field.   Unusual and uncharacteristic.

Summary

As the guys on Rock M Nation have reminded us (and themselves) many times this exploratory season, progress is not linear.  It is lumpy, uneven and sometimes unexpected.  The SLU team that gave VCU all it could handle last Friday, walking out of Chaifetz with their heads high, bore little resemblance to the squad that staggered out of the Patriot center six night later.

—————————————————————————–

AdjGS:  variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here.  Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact.  Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.

True Shooting %:  Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Leverage:  Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.  Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened.  Learn more here.

DNP-CD:  Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision.  Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.