The Billikens opened the Atlantic 10 season with a home loss to Rhode Island 65-53. The Safecracker shortened his bench and narrowed his vision, at least for a night.
Lineups
Starters: McBroom, Yacoubou, Roby, Yarbrough, Manning
We may be rocking The MYRYM Five for the rest of the year. The first two seasons of the Crews Era at SLU have shown that once Coach has a starting five he is comfortable with, he is willing to stick with it.
Minutes Leaders:
- Yacoubou (35)
- Yarbrough (30)
- Manning (30)
- Roby (29)
- McBroom (25)
DNP-CD:
- Miles Reynolds
- Brent Jolly
First time this year we have had healthy scratches, and another sign that The Safecracker is growing increasingly weary of twisting and turning and trying every combination possible. SLU has dropped to #5 in the country in Bench Minutes, and it looks like the plan is to continue that direction.
Crews expects to stay with tightened rotations, but says “I don’t think it’ll be names. Whatever the names are, they may be different.”
— Brian Hank Haenchen (@Brian_Haenchen) January 3, 2015
This is his way of saying Reynolds and Jolly are not necessarily in the doghouse, but the days of 12 guys playing double-digit minutes a piece are probably behind us. Sigh.
Four Factors
The Four Factors make a smashing debut here in WAB, barging through the door like Kool Aid with this message for all the kids: SLU played Rhode Island to a relative draw in several key areas, but critically broke down by turning the ball over WAY too much. Agbeko (5 Turnover) and Yacoubou (4) in particular had handle trouble.
Leverage
What I want for this team for the A-10 season has nothing to do with wins and losses. This team could run the table in a down A-10 and still not be invited to the NCAAs. So instead I want a gauntlet of situations and challenges for this group to face and ultimately overcome. I call these Meaningful Minutes. KenPom.com calls it Leverage.
This game featured 77% of Medium-High to High Leverage. Many opportunities to see what works and what doesn’t work in a context where possessions are important.
SLU Player Stats
(Definitions at the bottom of the post)
- Another big game from Yarbrough, and seemingly the point where the mantle of Primary Scorer was passed from McBroom to Yarbrough. At minimum the big Freshman joins the diminutive Junior to challenge defenses from different sections on the floor. The geometry starts to take shape
- Solid effort from Manning, taking to heart my questioning his role as a Rim Protector by chipping in four blocks, including big ones down the stretch as SLU tried to come back. In your face, WAB master!
- Ash mixed in a few Treats (11 pts, 7 rebounds) with a couple of Tricks (4 turnovers, 3 fouls)
- Quiet game from McBroom, as he faded into the background for this evening.
- Roby and AdjGS continue to do battle, as our man puts in 29 minutes of good hard work only to squeeze out a 0.01 of credit. You will get your due, Davell. Keep working, young man.
- Tough game for Agbeko — 5 TOs and 2 Fouls in nine minutes is whatever the opposite of “yeoman-like” work. Let’s call is Namoey Work and move on.
- The negatives are too many and troubling, but more disturbing to my eye are the DNP-CDs. I wonder whether Coach Crews will start going into games knowing who will sit, or if he instead is going to try and read the opponent and set his lineup accordingly, much like a baseball manager has a lineup facing a Right-Handed Pitcher, and a different standard configuration for a Lefty.
Summary
A loss, some thrills, and a short bench. High leverage, and a possible passing of the torch. The A-10 season begins.
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AdjGS: variation on the Game Score metric created by John Hollinger, detailed here. Hollinger’s original formula is Adjusted to reallocate the points in the game by ratio of the player’s overall impact. Credit to the team at Rock M Nation for this improvement.
True Shooting %: Per Basketball Reference, true shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.
Leverage: Per Ken Pomeroy, measures how much is at stake on a particular possession. Leverage is not based on what happened during the possession, but is the range of win probability based on what could have happened. Learn more here.
DNP-CD: Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision. Healthy and otherwise eligible player who did not see any action in the game.