After a riveting Women’s final on Sunday saw unbeaten South Carolina prevail over unstoppable Caitlin Clark and Iowa, we turn our focus to the Men’s final on Monday night. Actually we turn our focus to this total eclipse this afternoon first, THEN we turn our attention to the Men’s final.
UConn (60%) vs Purdue – 8:20 PM CDT on TBS
Zach Edey was named player of the year for the second time, joining historic company. And he has been driven in this NCAA tournament – posting outlandish numbers even for him on the road the the Final Four. You can see below that DJ Burns and company did a decent job limiting his productivity, as well as that of most of the Boilermakers, in the national semifinal – a slow-paced, methodical Purdue win over surprise NC State 63-50 on Saturday.
Neither team is deep as both are in the 200s in terms of Bench Minutes, and we expect a slow pace with few subs. Foul trouble lurks as a foe for both, certainly in the epic big man matchup of Edey vs Donovan Clingan, but also at the guard spots. UConn has only three losses this year, and in two of those Ls reserve guard Solomon Ball logged more than 20 minutes. He has not seen that much court time in the entire calendar year 2024, and Dan Hurley surely does not want to rely on him Monday.
Current Boilers in Bold. Big dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Boilermakers’ Final Four win over NC State on Saturday night. Smaller dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4.
UConn’s starters’ talent level this year is truly extraordinary. Shabazz Napier led UConn to the championship in 2014 as a one-man wrecking crew, following the lead of Kemba Walker before him in 2011. UConn’s ENTIRE STARTING FIVE perform at or above Napier/Walker levels for their Husky careers. Unless Purdue can get deeeep into UConn’s bench and make it a Solly Ball Game, this final looks like it will mirror the Women’s — dominant team beats standout player.
Current Huskies in Bold. Big dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Huskies’ Final Four win over Alabama on Saturday night. Smaller dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4.
Since 2014 we have been keeping track of those NCAA Men’s Division I college basketball programs that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in all the years since the tourney was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Our beloved SLU being among them, we have renewed our vigil for ten years running in the hopes the Billikens could survive and advance twice, in one year. Alas, they have not. But nobody’s perfect, certainly none of us at What’s A Billiken – we have been rooting so hard for N.C. State this year, for the scrappy underdog to make it to the Sweet Sixteen for their first time ever…not realizing that when they started calling themselves “N.C. State” a few years ago we somehow forgot that “North Carolina St.” made SIX trips to the Sweet Sixteen between 1985 and 2015. WTH, indeed.
Anyway, with no one to add this year, these are the NBK Graduates.
Congratulations to NC State! The Wolfpack beat fellow NBK-er and reputed Cinderella school Oakland on Saturday night to book their first trip to the Sweet Sixteen since they implausably won it all back in 1983.
NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — and KenPom rankings through Saturday 3/24/2024. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the five schools playing Sunday are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game – NC State won to secure their spot and graduate permanently from the ranks of the NBK. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
SUNDAY
#2 Grand Canyon(33%) vs Alabama – 6:10 pm CDT on TBS The Antelopes boast a strong defense (#9 in Effective FG% per KenPom), and used it Friday to harass (5) Saint Mary’s to a shooting line of .45/.28/.56. The Gaels focus heavily on Offensive Rebounding, both creating and preventing, and were successful in limiting what is normally a Grand Canyon strength. But the Antelopes best skill is in getting to the foul line (#3 in FTA/FGA per KenPom) and they leveraged it to go 28 of 32 from the charity stripe and win handily 75-66. (4) Alabama comes in as one of the top-scoring teams, led by dynamic point guard Mark Sears. The Lopes will need to slow things down, retrieve their misses, protect the paint, and get to the line to punch their ticket to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time ever.
Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Antelopes’ opening round upset of Saint Mary’s on 3/22/2024. Current Lopes in Bold.
#3 Yale (24%) vs San Diego St. – 8:40 pm CDT on TBS The Bulldogs rode the hot shooting of John Poulakidas (28 points) and weathered the foul trouble of top scorer Danny Wolf to close strong and knock off a very good (4) Auburn team. The Tigers had about eight different chances to tie it in the last minute, but could not convert. (5) San Diego St. presents another tough defense for Yale to solve.
Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Bulldogs’ opening round upset of Auburn on 3/22/2024. Current Dogs in Bold.
#4 James Madison (23%) vs Duke – 4:15 pm CDT on CBS The Dukes take the nation’s longest win streak (14 straight) into their matchup with (4) Duke.
Current Dukes in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Dukes’ opening round upset of Wisconsin on 3/22/2024.
#5 Utah St. (21%) vs Purdue – 1:40 pm CDT on CBS Great Osobor was good against (9) TCU (13 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists), but Isaac Johnson was great (19 points, 4 rebounds, 4 blocks) and KenPom gave the game MVP to Ian Martinez (21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, a block & a steal). The second round matchup will be a referendum on Minutes Continuity – (1) Purdue (70% in Minutes Continuity per KenPom) brought back most of their guys including 2x National Player of the Year Zach Edey; Utah St. (0.1%) started from nothing after a coaching change.
Current Aggies in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Aggies’ opening round win over TCU on 3/22/2024.
#6 Northwestern (17%) vs UConn – 6:45 pm CDT on TruTV In the absence of sidelined seven-footer Matthew Nicholson, the Wildcats shared the ball (20 assists) and got above-average contriubutions from most to knock off the (8) Florida Atlantic Owls (NBK Class of 2023) in overtime. They face the tallest task of our remaining teams, defending-champion and heavy betting favorite (1) UConn.
Current Cats in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wildcats’ opening round OT win over FAU on 3/22/2024.
Enjoy the games!
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here Plot format by Aaron Baggett Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy Inspiration from Rock M Nation Team colors courtesy: Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.
Eight contestants made it through to the Second Round, and stand on the brink of history – 40 minutes away from advancing to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since the field was expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.
NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — after the First Round. KenPom rankings through Friday 3/23/2024. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the eight schools still alive are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
SATURDAY #1 NC State (74%) vs #3 Oakland (26%) – 6:10 PM CDT on TBS Both the Wolfpack and the Golden Grizzlies got otherworldly performances from bench guys in their first round games on Thursday. Oakland’s Jack Gohlke poured in 32 points against (3) Kentucky on 10 for 20 three-point shooting, taking no shots inside the arc. Gohlke started the first thirteen games of the season, coming off the bench since. But he still logs big minutes — 36,34,36,31 the past four games — so color us intrigued by coach Greg Kampe and his rotations. Speaking of Kampe, the Oakland grad has coached at his alma mater for forty straight years, taking them to new heights in 2024. Oakland does not take or make a ton of threes overall, so we will see if the barrage against Kentucky was an aberration.
NC State‘s super sub on Thursday was Ben MIddlebrooks, coming alive for a career-high 21 points on 6-8 from two and 10-12 from the free throw line. Former Mizzou Tiger Mo Diarra shot it well and added 12 rebounds to help knock off (6) Texas Tech. D.J. Burns and DJ Horne form a terrific inside-outside combination, and we will see if Oakland has anyone that can stay in front of either. It’s bully-ball versus small ball to get to the second weekend and a week basking in the cinderella spotlight (apologies to Gohlke, but these are both Cinderellas if they make the Sweet Sixteen).
Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wolfpack’s opening round upset of Texas Tech 3/21/2024. Current Pack in Bold.Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Grizzlies’ opening round upset of Kentucky 3/21/2024. Current Grizz in Bold.
#6 Duquesne (21%) vs Illinois – 7:40 PM CDT on TNT Illinois was one of the most impressive top tier teams in Round One, taking a lead early in the second half and pulling away from Morehead St. to win 85-69 on Thursday. Terrence Shannon again led the way for the Illini and his 26 points offset Morehead’s Riley Minix’s 27. Marcus Damask shrugged off a poor shooting night to post a triple double with 12 points, 11 rebounds & 10 assists. Duquesne got off to a good start and took a 14-point lead early in the second half, then survived a back-and-forth finish to beat (6) BYU 71-67. Fifth-year senior Dae Dae Grant led a very balanced Dukes attack with 19 points and 3 steals, and fellow fifth-year Fousseyni Drame kicked in 8 points and 8 rebounds. Duquesne makes their bones on their defense (#29 in KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) so we will see if they can slow down Shannon, Damask, Dainja and the rest of the Fighting Illini.
Red dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Dukes’ opening round upset of BYU on 3/21/2024. Current Dukes in Bold.
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here Plot format by Aaron Baggett Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy Inspiration from Rock M Nation Team colors courtesy: Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.
Here’s where the NBK stands (stood) after the opening round on Thursday. Big movers were NC State and Oakland, both pulling off upsets and combining to ensure that at least one school will graduate from the NBK this year.
NBK Rankings after the first round games on Thursday, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom Rank through Thursday 3/21/2024. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes favored future opponent advances, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
NBK Rankings after the First Four, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom Rank through Wednesday 3/20/2024. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes better seed wins, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
The field is set! Joey Brackets once again only missed one (congratulations Virginia, our condolences Oklahoma). And this year’s bracket contains 29 schools that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. These teams are the Never Been Kissed(NBK), and in this First Four Eve post we rank them from most- to least-likely to make it to the second weekend for the first time ever (asterisk).
As per annual tradition, last year all of our predictions about who would emerge were wrong. We liked TCU, NC State and Kennesaw St. — one win between the three of them — but instead it was Florida Atlantic (17% chance) and Princeton (3%) who made it to the Sweet Sixteen, with FAU going on to the Final Four. Undaunted by our failed past, we will again make three picks: one from #1-10 in our rankings, and one each from #11-20 and #21-29.
New Mexico stands out as a particularly attractive pick this year, clawing their way to the top spot in the NBK Rankings. The Lobos limped into the Mountain West Conference tournament and were a likely bet to not get a bid at all, but rendered all the mock brackets moot by taking the MWC crown. They typically play with a high pace (#8 in Tempo per KenPom), and MWC tourney foes Air Force, San Diego St., and Colorado St. were successfuly in slowing them down, but no one was able to stop them. UNM will open as an unlikely favorite, with the (11) New Mexico favored to beat the (6) Clemson. We are less excited about a second round date with (3) Baylor, but anything can happen.
From the next tier we like Samford to advance to the second weekend. Seth Davis’s comments about this pod were astute — pointing out depth being the strength of Samford and depth being the weakness of Kansas, and this game at altitude in Salt Lake City. A recipe for an upset, plus we never like to miss a chance to slag Kansas wherever possible. With equal parts analysis and spite, we go with the Bulldogs to upset Kansas and then out-Bulldog Gonzaga in round two to graduate from the NBK for good.
In the longshots cohort, Colgate really stands out as a hedge against our New Mexico bet. But since both can’t make it, we will pick Long Beach St. There is no logical reason to pick The Beach, as both (2) Arizona and (7) Dayton and even lesser potential second-round foe (10) Nevada would seem to have no reason to struggle to beat Long Beach. In his game-by-game prediction analysis, Jay Bilas termed LBSU as a conventional team. By all metrics and measures that is true. But if ever a team wanted to play unconventionally, if ever a coach was going to go full-on WTF and just try any sort of crazy stuff…this is just the team and the coach to do it. Before the start of the Big West Conference tournament, coach Dan Monson — yes, the same one of Gonzaga & Minnesota fame — was informed he would be canned after its conclusion. Then they went and won the whole damn thing. So here they are – why not go nuts? One-man zone? Sure. Run and gun? Why not. Super small ball? Absolutely. Giant apocalypse? Hell yes. Arizona and Dayton won’t know what hit ’em.
NBK Rankings going into the First Four, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom Rank through Sunday 3/17/2024. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes better seed wins, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
UConn is disgustingly good. Last year there was some sneaking up on people – they were a 4-seed and there were a LOT of upsets leading to the Final Four, so they were good-sized favorites in both of their Final Four games in 2023 and delivered accordingly. This year they started the season #4 in the KenPom and somehow in the middle of a fourteen game winning streak fell to a season-low #8, but have been #3 or higher since 1/31 and now sit at #1. No idea what the betting markets look like, but I will state unequivocably from where I sit in my comfortable leather chair, on the morning of Selection Sunday: I can’t imagine a scenario where any other team beats them.
But our goals in this space are more modest than chasing titles and dynasties – here we rank and track the schools that have never made the Sweet Sixteen — that have Never Been Kissed — in the almost-forty years since the tournament first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.
Friday night saw UC-Irvine bow out of this years sweepstakes, losing a nip-and-tuck battle with eventual Big West champion Long Beach St., extending lame-duck Dan Monson’s reign another week. The Beach are also NBK-eligible so we will be watching them closely.
Also Friday night, Utah St. were up three at halftime over defending national runner-up San Diego St., but the Aztecs ran away with it in the second half and won easily 86-70. Danny Sprinkle’s Aggies should be safely in the field of 68 regardless.
North Texas bowed out Friday night as well, falling to last year’s NBK darling Florida Atlantic 77-71 in the American Athletic Conference quarters.
Saturday saw Vermont win the America East, at home, for the third straight year. The Catamounts were down much of the game, unlike in past years, but got on top and held off UMass-Lowell.
Yale beat Cornell and Brown knocked off Princeton, so Yale takes on Brown tomorrow for the Ivy. Brown last made the NCAAs in 1986 so the Ivy will have an NBK representative in the tourney regardless of Sunday’s result.
Nebraska led Illinois for much of Saturday night before Illinois turned it on late. No defense was played in this game, by fiat.
South Florida were down eight early in the second half to UAB in the American semifinal, fought back, but lost a technical-foul fest. With Temple (five Sweet Sixteens since 1985) vs UAB (one, in 2004), the American Athletic conference officially has exited the NBK chat for 2024.
UNM vs SDSU on Saturday night on CBS. Incredible game, with the Lobos winning 68-61. New Mexico took a big lead in the first half, San Diego St went on their own run to pull even with nine minutes left, but the Lobos closed it down HARD, limiting the Aztecs to four points over the last seven minutes of action. New Mexico was shaping up to be a vexing case for the mock brackets and ultimately for The Committee, but they removed all doubt and made it a certainty that the NBK Conference, er, the Mountain West Conference would get a record six teams into the dance, four of which have Never Been Kissed.
Akron vs Kent St. for the MAC title Saturday night on ESPN+. Oh man the end of this was really crazy. Kent St, down one, went up for the shot with just a few seconds left. That shot missed, but their dude was there for the rebound and the nearly-uncontested put-back which he deposited easily. So the Flashers are now up by one with less than five seconds left. But one Flasher lost track of the score, and thinking they were down rather than up, fouls the Zip immediately after the inbound. The Zip makes both, the Zips go to the tournament, the Flashers are left to console their distraught teammate.
NC State vs North Carolina for the ACC on Saturday night on ESPN. The Wolfback beat Carolina and steal a bid – don’t give up, don’t ever give up.
Grand Canyon vs UT-Arlington for the WAC late Saturday night on ESPN+. In this space we were glad to see former Billiken Phillip Russell giving his all for UTA, but the Lopes had too much.
It has nothing whatsoever to do with the NBK – Iowa St has made 6 Sweet Sixteens in the modern era and Houston graduated from the NBK back in 2019 and has their sights set on National Championships instead – but we would be remiss if we did not note the Cyclones absolute waxing of Houston 69-41 in the Big XII Final on Saturday evening. Is this Iowa St making a statement? Is this Houston realizing conference tournaments are not the ultimate goal? It does seem like it will elevate ISU’s profile without hurting Houston’s position as a #1 seed, so from that perspective was the best outcome the conference could hope for. Next year, the Big XII will be nineteen schools, six multi-national corporations, three hedge funds, and two nepo-babies, so whatever the result this year it marks the end of a transitional era. I compare it to a kiss from a rose on the bend. No, actually, I don’t. Strike that. Sorry, Seal.
SELECTION SUNDAY NBK SLATE Yale (77%) vs Brown – 11 AM CDT on ESPN2/ESPN+ Duquesne(47%) vs VCU – Noon CDT on CBS
Yale won’t make it as an at-large, and the A-10 was already declared a bid stealer on Saturday, so no additional teams will be crowded out by these two results.
NBK standings as of the morning of Selection Sunday. KenPom rankings through Saturday 3/16/2024. ESPN Bracketology as of 3/17/2024 at 1:12 AM EST.
New Mexico making a run for it Our NBK #1 team New Mexico keeps moving closer and closer to the good side of the bubble, and they will take on NBK #4 Colorado St. in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Brought To You By The NBK late on Friday night. CSU seems comforably in the field, so NBK HQ is pulling for the Lobos in this one.
Nebraska still alive Herbie is feeling frisky, sprinting out to a 50-27 lead over Indiana on Friday evening.
TCU goes down hard The Horned Frogs ran into Houston on Thursday, or maybe “ran” is not the right term as the Cougs mucked things up and slowed the game to a painful crawl.
Not sweating it These schools also bowed out relatively early in conference tournament season — Boise St, Northwestern — but will not be sweating it out Sunday.
McNeese becomes our 51st State! Will Wade’s mob rolled through the Southland regular season and conference tourney and will go into the NCAAs as the strongest Southland entry since Stephen F. Austin back in 2016, featuring Nathan Walkup on lead guitar and Brad Underwood on drums.
South Dakota St: welcome back to the NBK! No one finished within ten points of the Jackrabbits on their way to the Summit crown and their seventh trip to the tourney in the last thirteen years.
Middling three-letter schools fall SMU & UCF lost their only hope and regroup for next year.
Like a New York Times Omega Man NC State, North Texas, Yale & Akron are stayin’ alive (stayin’ alive).
The A-10 stole my bid! With conference metrics leader, and NCAA shoo-in, Dayton going down as well as conference champion Richmond, none of the remaining semifinalists in the A-10 had a prayer of an at-large. So the A-10 is going to break someone’s heart – ISU’s? UNM’s?
NBK rankings the evening of Friday 3/15/2024. These include any school in the top 90ish KenPom OR are leading their conference in KenPom rankings AND have never made the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the tournament first expanded to 64 teams in 1985. KenPom rankings through mid-Friday evening, as are Bracketology and W-L records.
Quick synopsis of the main NBK-related events since Sunday:
Appy State is OUT! On Sunday night, Sun Belt regular season champs Appalachian St fell behind early to Arkansas St in their semifinal, hung around long enough to take the lead briefly in the last six minutes, traded baskets for a bit and ultimately fell to a buzzer-beater and now board the express train straight to the NIT.
James Madison is IN! JMU are the primary recipient of this gift from the Mountaineers, as the Dukes cruised in their own Sun Belt semifinal, winning 73-68 over toothless Texas St, then rolled Arkansas St in the final 91-71. Madison started the season rated #136 in the KenPom and made an immediate statement beating #19 Michigan St in OT in the opener. The Dukes last NCAA appearance was back in 2013, and they will carry a 13-game winning streak into the tourney.
We have a new #1! With an emphatic 85-70 win over Michigan in their Big Ten finale, Nebraska cements their place in the field by going 6-1 down the home stretch and snagging the top spot in the NBK. TCU has lost four of six and yield their perch atop the NBK to Herbie Husker.
Sycamores hate the Drake! The Missouri Valley Conference final Sunday started off as a laugher, as Drake ran out to a hot start and held a 45-32 lead at half. but Indiana St went on a big run with ten minutes remaining to cut it to one and then take a couple of brief leads late. Arch Madness was on. Tucker DeVries, Atin Wright, Darnell Brodie and the Drake Bulldogs held on to win 84-80 and punch their ticket for the second straight year. Indiana St goes down after their best post Larry Bird year ever — they will be on pins-and-needles the rest of the week as they await their fate.
The Dons get whacked! Gonzaga refused to admit any one else to their private party showdown with Saint Mary’s in the WCC final — they dispatched San Francisco with ease 89-77 in the semifinal Monday night in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score.
Samford is IN! Top seed in the Southern Conference Samford held serve and ripped right through the field, topping East Tennessee St in the final Monday. They are sure to be a hot upset pick in the Bracket Breakdown shows next week, as they shoot the lights out (#7 in three-point shooting percentage, #50 on twos) and run deep and have active hands (#3 in Bench Minutes and #10 in Steal percentage).
Charleston is IN! The Cougars sport the nation’s second-longest winning streak at 12, topping Stony Brook in an overtime thriller of a Coastal Athletic Association final on Tuesday night. Guard Reyne Smith shot poorly – 7 for 18 overall – but added 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals to earn game MVP honors. This is the first NCAA appearance for the Cougs.
Everyone in the Mountain West is 22-9! OK maybe not EVERYone but the three top NBK teams from the MWC — New Mexico, Colorado St & Boise St — all finished 22-9 with KenPoms of 34, 36 & 38. In an election year, to see such unity is truly inspiring. Joey Brackets is able to parse these best buds apart, as his bracket excludes New Mexico but includes the other two.
We are just getting started! McNeese St won their Southland opener, and Vermont has already made the America East final. Most of the rest of the conferences kick off preliminary rounds on Wednesday. Stay tuned.
NBK rankings the evening of Tuesday 3/12/2024. These include any school in the top 75 KenPom OR are leading their conference in KenPom rankings AND have never made the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the tournament first expanded to 64 teams in 1985. KenPom rankings through mid-Tuesday evening 3/12/2024, as are Bracketology and W-L records.
