Top of the A10 George Mason travel to the midwest to take on number three SLU. 6’8″ Senior Jalen Haynes has been a beast down low, shooting 61% from two-point range and snagging rebounds at both ends – he’s currently #5 in the conference KenPom Player of the Year rankings.
Mason are on a nine-game win streak and come off a convincing 82-67 home win over Rhode Island. Tony Skinn’s club gets it done on the defensive end (#13 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom) by bothering shots. They both prevent and defend threes (29% for opponents), and give up nothing inside the arc (43.1%) as the large Haynes and his even larger backup 6’11” Giovanni Emejuru protect the rim and clear the glass as well as anyone in the conference. And after seventeen straight double-figure scoring games to open the season, SLU’s Robbie Avila has been held under ten points the last three straight.
This is a matchup of strength against strength – the Patriots are 4th in the country in defensive 2Pt%; the Bills are 4th in the country in offensive 2Pt%. The other “perfect” matchup is in the realm of free throw rate: Mason is 15th in drawing while SLU is 15th in avoiding.
Gold dots, if you can see them, are Game Scores per 40 from the Pats last game, a home win over Rhody
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here Plot format by Aaron Baggett Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy Inspiration from Rock M Nation Team colors courtesy: Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.
SLU continues their Richmond, VA road trip with a visit to the Robins Center to take on the Richmond Spiders. The Billikens opened their last game — also in Richmond visiting VCU — with a Robbie Avila three, and never led again. The Rams were led by Joe Bamisile‘s 23 points and ran roughshod over the Bills on the offensive glass with an OR% of .500.
The Spiders limp into this one as well. After winning their first two A10 games, they have since dropped three straight with the most recent being a 63-49 loss at St. Bonaventure on Wednesday night. Richmond’s offense has sputtered in the absence of lead guard DeLonnie Hunt, out for the next eight weeks after sustaining a broken foot during the first of those three straight losses.
Red dots mark Game Score per 40 Minutes for each Spider in their most recent game, a loss at St Bonaventure
You can see from above Dusan Neskovic struggled to carry the extra load against the Bonnies, though he did post a career high 28 points in the previous game, an OT home loss to Rhode Island. Richmond is an interesting team — best free throw shooting team in the country, and they rarely turn the ball over. They guard the three-point line, shoot a number of threes themselves but don’t make very many (340th in 3PT% per KenPom).
With Hunt out and Richmond unequipped to hit the offensive glass with the same alacrity as VCU, the Billikens should win and keep pace with VCU and George Mason atop the A-10 standings. Gibson Jimerson has largely struggled against hometown teams Richmond & VCU, particularly in the latter half of his decade-long-seeming career. Look for SLU to lean heavily on Avila and Isaiah Swope pick-and-rolls today, with Kalu Anya restoring order on the defensive boards. We’ll go with 70-63 SLU as our final score.
SLU travels to VCU for a midweek clash at the top of the Atlantic 10. SLU is unbeaten thus far at 3-0, while VCU is 2-1 having lost their A10 opener to St. Bonaventure before beating Loyola Chicago and Fordham handily.
VCU senior guard Phillip Russell is a familiar face to Billikens fans, the Vashon grad playing briefly for the Bills in 2020-21, ultimately redshirting. He went on to spend two productive years at SEMO before joining UT-Arlington last year. As you can see above Russell has quickly established himself with the Rams, forming a formidable backcourt with fellow Senior guard Max Shulga. and swingman Joseph Bamasile. Russell and Shulga both draw fouls and dish assists at high rates. At just 6’4″, Bamisile is a terrific shot-blocker and offensive rebounder.
We’ll see how the Ram backcourt matches up with SLU’s Isaiah Swope, Gibson Jimerson, and the Kobe Johnson / Kellen Thames combo. These teams meet again in Saint Louis two weeks from tonight.
After a riveting Women’s final on Sunday saw unbeaten South Carolina prevail over unstoppable Caitlin Clark and Iowa, we turn our focus to the Men’s final on Monday night. Actually we turn our focus to this total eclipse this afternoon first, THEN we turn our attention to the Men’s final.
UConn (60%) vs Purdue – 8:20 PM CDT on TBS
Zach Edey was named player of the year for the second time, joining historic company. And he has been driven in this NCAA tournament – posting outlandish numbers even for him on the road the the Final Four. You can see below that DJ Burns and company did a decent job limiting his productivity, as well as that of most of the Boilermakers, in the national semifinal – a slow-paced, methodical Purdue win over surprise NC State 63-50 on Saturday.
Neither team is deep as both are in the 200s in terms of Bench Minutes, and we expect a slow pace with few subs. Foul trouble lurks as a foe for both, certainly in the epic big man matchup of Edey vs Donovan Clingan, but also at the guard spots. UConn has only three losses this year, and in two of those Ls reserve guard Solomon Ball logged more than 20 minutes. He has not seen that much court time in the entire calendar year 2024, and Dan Hurley surely does not want to rely on him Monday.
Current Boilers in Bold. Big dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Boilermakers’ Final Four win over NC State on Saturday night. Smaller dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4.
UConn’s starters’ talent level this year is truly extraordinary. Shabazz Napier led UConn to the championship in 2014 as a one-man wrecking crew, following the lead of Kemba Walker before him in 2011. UConn’s ENTIRE STARTING FIVE perform at or above Napier/Walker levels for their Husky careers. Unless Purdue can get deeeep into UConn’s bench and make it a Solly Ball Game, this final looks like it will mirror the Women’s — dominant team beats standout player.
Current Huskies in Bold. Big dots are the Game Score Per 40 Minutes in the Huskies’ Final Four win over Alabama on Saturday night. Smaller dots are the same metric for Rounds 1-4.
Since 2014 we have been keeping track of those NCAA Men’s Division I college basketball programs that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in all the years since the tourney was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Our beloved SLU being among them, we have renewed our vigil for ten years running in the hopes the Billikens could survive and advance twice, in one year. Alas, they have not. But nobody’s perfect, certainly none of us at What’s A Billiken – we have been rooting so hard for N.C. State this year, for the scrappy underdog to make it to the Sweet Sixteen for their first time ever…not realizing that when they started calling themselves “N.C. State” a few years ago we somehow forgot that “North Carolina St.” made SIX trips to the Sweet Sixteen between 1985 and 2015. WTH, indeed.
Anyway, with no one to add this year, these are the NBK Graduates.
Congratulations to NC State! The Wolfpack beat fellow NBK-er and reputed Cinderella school Oakland on Saturday night to book their first trip to the Sweet Sixteen since they implausably won it all back in 1983.
NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — and KenPom rankings through Saturday 3/24/2024. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the five schools playing Sunday are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game – NC State won to secure their spot and graduate permanently from the ranks of the NBK. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
SUNDAY
#2 Grand Canyon(33%) vs Alabama – 6:10 pm CDT on TBS The Antelopes boast a strong defense (#9 in Effective FG% per KenPom), and used it Friday to harass (5) Saint Mary’s to a shooting line of .45/.28/.56. The Gaels focus heavily on Offensive Rebounding, both creating and preventing, and were successful in limiting what is normally a Grand Canyon strength. But the Antelopes best skill is in getting to the foul line (#3 in FTA/FGA per KenPom) and they leveraged it to go 28 of 32 from the charity stripe and win handily 75-66. (4) Alabama comes in as one of the top-scoring teams, led by dynamic point guard Mark Sears. The Lopes will need to slow things down, retrieve their misses, protect the paint, and get to the line to punch their ticket to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time ever.
Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Antelopes’ opening round upset of Saint Mary’s on 3/22/2024. Current Lopes in Bold.
#3 Yale (24%) vs San Diego St. – 8:40 pm CDT on TBS The Bulldogs rode the hot shooting of John Poulakidas (28 points) and weathered the foul trouble of top scorer Danny Wolf to close strong and knock off a very good (4) Auburn team. The Tigers had about eight different chances to tie it in the last minute, but could not convert. (5) San Diego St. presents another tough defense for Yale to solve.
Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Bulldogs’ opening round upset of Auburn on 3/22/2024. Current Dogs in Bold.
#4 James Madison (23%) vs Duke – 4:15 pm CDT on CBS The Dukes take the nation’s longest win streak (14 straight) into their matchup with (4) Duke.
Current Dukes in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Dukes’ opening round upset of Wisconsin on 3/22/2024.
#5 Utah St. (21%) vs Purdue – 1:40 pm CDT on CBS Great Osobor was good against (9) TCU (13 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists), but Isaac Johnson was great (19 points, 4 rebounds, 4 blocks) and KenPom gave the game MVP to Ian Martinez (21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, a block & a steal). The second round matchup will be a referendum on Minutes Continuity – (1) Purdue (70% in Minutes Continuity per KenPom) brought back most of their guys including 2x National Player of the Year Zach Edey; Utah St. (0.1%) started from nothing after a coaching change.
Current Aggies in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Aggies’ opening round win over TCU on 3/22/2024.
#6 Northwestern (17%) vs UConn – 6:45 pm CDT on TruTV In the absence of sidelined seven-footer Matthew Nicholson, the Wildcats shared the ball (20 assists) and got above-average contriubutions from most to knock off the (8) Florida Atlantic Owls (NBK Class of 2023) in overtime. They face the tallest task of our remaining teams, defending-champion and heavy betting favorite (1) UConn.
Current Cats in Bold. Gray dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wildcats’ opening round OT win over FAU on 3/22/2024.
Enjoy the games!
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here Plot format by Aaron Baggett Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy Inspiration from Rock M Nation Team colors courtesy: Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.
Eight contestants made it through to the Second Round, and stand on the brink of history – 40 minutes away from advancing to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since the field was expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.
NBK Rankings — based on best-to-worst Sweet Sixteen Odds — after the First Round. KenPom rankings through Friday 3/23/2024. Sweet Sixteen Odds for the eight schools still alive are simply the Win Probability in their Round of 32 game. Win Probabilities calculated using KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
SATURDAY #1 NC State (74%) vs #3 Oakland (26%) – 6:10 PM CDT on TBS Both the Wolfpack and the Golden Grizzlies got otherworldly performances from bench guys in their first round games on Thursday. Oakland’s Jack Gohlke poured in 32 points against (3) Kentucky on 10 for 20 three-point shooting, taking no shots inside the arc. Gohlke started the first thirteen games of the season, coming off the bench since. But he still logs big minutes — 36,34,36,31 the past four games — so color us intrigued by coach Greg Kampe and his rotations. Speaking of Kampe, the Oakland grad has coached at his alma mater for forty straight years, taking them to new heights in 2024. Oakland does not take or make a ton of threes overall, so we will see if the barrage against Kentucky was an aberration.
NC State‘s super sub on Thursday was Ben MIddlebrooks, coming alive for a career-high 21 points on 6-8 from two and 10-12 from the free throw line. Former Mizzou Tiger Mo Diarra shot it well and added 12 rebounds to help knock off (6) Texas Tech. D.J. Burns and DJ Horne form a terrific inside-outside combination, and we will see if Oakland has anyone that can stay in front of either. It’s bully-ball versus small ball to get to the second weekend and a week basking in the cinderella spotlight (apologies to Gohlke, but these are both Cinderellas if they make the Sweet Sixteen).
Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Wolfpack’s opening round upset of Texas Tech 3/21/2024. Current Pack in Bold.Black dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Grizzlies’ opening round upset of Kentucky 3/21/2024. Current Grizz in Bold.
#6 Duquesne (21%) vs Illinois – 7:40 PM CDT on TNT Illinois was one of the most impressive top tier teams in Round One, taking a lead early in the second half and pulling away from Morehead St. to win 85-69 on Thursday. Terrence Shannon again led the way for the Illini and his 26 points offset Morehead’s Riley Minix’s 27. Marcus Damask shrugged off a poor shooting night to post a triple double with 12 points, 11 rebounds & 10 assists. Duquesne got off to a good start and took a 14-point lead early in the second half, then survived a back-and-forth finish to beat (6) BYU 71-67. Fifth-year senior Dae Dae Grant led a very balanced Dukes attack with 19 points and 3 steals, and fellow fifth-year Fousseyni Drame kicked in 8 points and 8 rebounds. Duquesne makes their bones on their defense (#29 in KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) so we will see if they can slow down Shannon, Damask, Dainja and the rest of the Fighting Illini.
Red dots represent Game Score Per 40 performance in the Dukes’ opening round upset of BYU on 3/21/2024. Current Dukes in Bold.
Data courtesy Kenpom.com and Basketball Reference and RealGM.com Game Score metric created by John Hollinger detailed here Plot format by Aaron Baggett Inspiration from Ken Pomeroy Inspiration from Rock M Nation Team colors courtesy: Benjamin S. Baumer and Gregory J. Matthews (2020). teamcolors: Color Palettes for Pro Sports Teams. R package version 0.0.4.
Here’s where the NBK stands (stood) after the opening round on Thursday. Big movers were NC State and Oakland, both pulling off upsets and combining to ensure that at least one school will graduate from the NBK this year.
NBK Rankings after the first round games on Thursday, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom Rank through Thursday 3/21/2024. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes favored future opponent advances, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
NBK Rankings after the First Four, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom Rank through Wednesday 3/20/2024. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes better seed wins, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
The field is set! Joey Brackets once again only missed one (congratulations Virginia, our condolences Oklahoma). And this year’s bracket contains 29 schools that have never made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the years since the field was first expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. These teams are the Never Been Kissed(NBK), and in this First Four Eve post we rank them from most- to least-likely to make it to the second weekend for the first time ever (asterisk).
As per annual tradition, last year all of our predictions about who would emerge were wrong. We liked TCU, NC State and Kennesaw St. — one win between the three of them — but instead it was Florida Atlantic (17% chance) and Princeton (3%) who made it to the Sweet Sixteen, with FAU going on to the Final Four. Undaunted by our failed past, we will again make three picks: one from #1-10 in our rankings, and one each from #11-20 and #21-29.
New Mexico stands out as a particularly attractive pick this year, clawing their way to the top spot in the NBK Rankings. The Lobos limped into the Mountain West Conference tournament and were a likely bet to not get a bid at all, but rendered all the mock brackets moot by taking the MWC crown. They typically play with a high pace (#8 in Tempo per KenPom), and MWC tourney foes Air Force, San Diego St., and Colorado St. were successfuly in slowing them down, but no one was able to stop them. UNM will open as an unlikely favorite, with the (11) New Mexico favored to beat the (6) Clemson. We are less excited about a second round date with (3) Baylor, but anything can happen.
From the next tier we like Samford to advance to the second weekend. Seth Davis’s comments about this pod were astute — pointing out depth being the strength of Samford and depth being the weakness of Kansas, and this game at altitude in Salt Lake City. A recipe for an upset, plus we never like to miss a chance to slag Kansas wherever possible. With equal parts analysis and spite, we go with the Bulldogs to upset Kansas and then out-Bulldog Gonzaga in round two to graduate from the NBK for good.
In the longshots cohort, Colgate really stands out as a hedge against our New Mexico bet. But since both can’t make it, we will pick Long Beach St. There is no logical reason to pick The Beach, as both (2) Arizona and (7) Dayton and even lesser potential second-round foe (10) Nevada would seem to have no reason to struggle to beat Long Beach. In his game-by-game prediction analysis, Jay Bilas termed LBSU as a conventional team. By all metrics and measures that is true. But if ever a team wanted to play unconventionally, if ever a coach was going to go full-on WTF and just try any sort of crazy stuff…this is just the team and the coach to do it. Before the start of the Big West Conference tournament, coach Dan Monson — yes, the same one of Gonzaga & Minnesota fame — was informed he would be canned after its conclusion. Then they went and won the whole damn thing. So here they are – why not go nuts? One-man zone? Sure. Run and gun? Why not. Super small ball? Absolutely. Giant apocalypse? Hell yes. Arizona and Dayton won’t know what hit ’em.
NBK Rankings going into the First Four, based on Sweet Sixteen Odds. KenPom Rank through Sunday 3/17/2024. Sweet Sixteen Path assumes better seed wins, and Win Probabilities are calculated based on KenPom Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency ratings.
